There is still part of me that believes Brexit won’t happen. Not in Scotland anyway. I’ve been surprised and gleeful to see so many senior and well placed members of the Scottish establishment convert to Yes further to the EU vote; their EU citizenship meaning so very much to them. The Yes movement may have lost a chunk of largely racist yessers, but we swapped them for some powerful new allies. Many of these new allies work in law and government and have positions of influence. Having people on our side within the architecture of state is important when it comes to guiding Scotland to its new independent destination.
Over the last few weeks we have seen various banks start to relocate headquarters and jobs outside London (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Citigroup, HSBC, etc.). Gove has scuttled off to Denmark to try to trade-off Scottish fish for financial passporting rights for the city of London (no doubt). Many of these banks have chosen Dublin. It could have been Scotland had we known of this Brexit calamity and chosen independence in 2014. We were told we would be in the EU during that vote, thus we must be given the choice of independence again.
Brexit won’t happen because we need free trade and we need migrants to keep the economy afloat. Britain always bows down to the altar of money. Transitional arrangements will just be a premise to us staying in indefinitely. I know this as I just heard a Tory say the opposite of that on the radio this morning. Even Tory Lord Hope, the architect of Article 50, thinks it can be revoked.
The Tory fantasy of getting a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, akin to Canada, won’t happen. The EU will not allow us access to trade without paying our annual billions of pounds membership fee. It’s that simple. If they let Britain do it, all the other Member States will want to do it. The ethos of the redistribution of wealth underpins the EU, which is something the Corbyns and Cat Boyds of this world don’t appear to understand. Rich countries pay in more so that the poor countries can get cohesion and structural funds to rebalance their economies with ours; we want everyone in the EU to have access to jobs, a decent standard of living, and fundamental rights.
I stood of up in my local SNP branch meeting some time ago and told them I wasn’t accepting any single market membership – as Scotland voted to remain a full member of the EU. On reflection now, I can see that retaining European Economic Area membership could even be better for Scotland. I’ve never been entirely convinced of the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. They tend towards intensive farming/fishing and economies of scale, when fishing and farming matters should perhaps be kept local. I would be concerned however about human rights in this scenario, we must maintain membership of the Council of Europe which oversees our human rights.
In any case, the scenario for Scotland looks good. Unlike the last indyref, we have 27 EU Member States on our side against the rUK, which plans to leave the European Union (I use the term ‘plan’ here loosely). We have Guy Verhostadt, Michel Barnier, and Jean Claude Juncker all making positive statements regarding Scotland and meeting with Nicola in person. We have an ally in Ireland and the unsolvable issue of the Irish border.
It is likely Angela Merkel will get elected German Chancellor again next month and the strong and stable leadership of the EU will forge ahead, with the euro predicted to gain parity with the pound in 2018. Britain and the brexiteers will be shown up for the fools that they are. The idiocy that is Brexit will certainly not go ahead, not in Scotland anyway. Just let Westminster try to make a power grab over our devolved policy areas, destroy our economy, remove our human rights, and deport our international family and friends. It will just make a Yes vote in the (pre-Brexit) ScotRef all the more certain.
The Butterfly Rebellion